Sunday, November 3, 2013

Why TRES BLUE will win the 2013 Melbourne Cup (and other winning selections)


Well it’s back again for 2013 – my incredibly amazing and awe inspiring guide for picking a winner in the race that stops a nation, 2013 Melbourne Cup.

Won't get fooled again!
Now if you followed my brilliant guide this time last year, you’ll see that I missed the eventual winner Green Moon – merely a hiccup if you will. I’ve changed that rule (and everything else) ever so slightly which will undoubtedly cough up a brilliant 3 selections that should well and truly load up your bank account*
Got your champagne and form guide ready? Let’s use the Almigo system to pay off that mortgage!



RULE 1: 40 IS NOW THE NEW 50

If it’s currently ranked at 40-1 or higher, then my waters are telling me that while it is tempting, your chances are slim of that horse doing anything but nibbling on the roses on the bolt down the main stretch. This coughs up our first eliminations of: RED CARDEAUX, ETHIOPIA, MOURAYAN, SUPER COOL, IBICENCO and RUSCELLO.

RULE 2: IF YOU STRUGGLE SAYING IT, IT’LL STRUGGLE IN THE CUP

This year only VOLEUSE DE COEURS gets eliminated in the second round. God only knows how you say it correctly.

RULE 3: 8 YEARS AND RUNNING

An 8 year old horse hasn’t won a Melbourne cup in over 70 years! That’s staggering really and means that DUNADEN gets a rest.

She's shattered I've eliminated SUPER COOL

RULE 4: BLACK IS NOT THE NEW BLACK

Number Jockeys wearing Black as the main colour silks who have won a Melbourne Cup? 17. Number of Melbourne Cup races? Stacks more than 17. This will shock the world, but FIORENTE gets the cut.

NEW RULE 5: BACK FOR ROUND TWO? HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

According to this article: “Only one horse in the past 23 years has won a Melbourne Cup after trying and failing previously. That was Brew in 2000. You have to go back to Tawriffic in 1989 for another. So think twice before backing horses which have been found wanting in the Cup before.
So we say goodbye and fare thee well to: MOUNT ATHOS

NEW RULE 6: BARRIER 18 IS A TRUE BARRIER

Sorry about that HAWKSPUR but Barrier 18 hasn’t produced a winner since it opened.


They're celebrating my tips early this year!

Which leaves us with quite a few hangers on (13), including:

GREEN MOON
SEA MOON
BROWN PANTHER
FORETELLER
DANDINO
FAWKNER
SEVILLE
SUPER COOL
MASKED MARVEL
ROYAL EMPIRE
SIMENON
VEREMA
DEAR DEMI
TRES BLUE

Oh dear. Better start adding a few more filters:

RULE 7: IT’S THE ONES IN THE MIDDLE YOU HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
‘Officially five-year-olds boast the best with 44 wins followed by 4YO’s (42 wins), 3YO’s (23 wins)
Well in that case, we can now scratch GREEN MOON, SEA MOON, BROWN PANTHER, FORETELLER, DANDINO, FAWKNER, SEVILLE, MASKED MARVEL and SIMENON.

Ahh much better, this leaves us with: VEREMA, DEAR DEMI and TRES BLUE. And if you look at the recent form of each of these beasties you land in this order:

TRES BLUE
VEREMA
DEAR DEMI

So according to the Almigo 2013 SUPER SYSTEM TURBO 2000, the horse that should* win the 2013 Melbourne Cup will be TRES BLUE. Or VEREMA. Or DEAR DEMI.

The party starts early with my selections!

*Allegedly. It’s not my problem if you lose your shirt or house punting with my amazing system. 

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