Sunday, November 1, 2015

Why BONDI BEACH will win the 2015 Melbourne Cup

Okay, so I didn't pick a winner last year. Nor the year before that. And yes, if you go back even further, I didn't pick the previous winner the year before either.



But hey, I'm probably due. So get ready to pay the mortgage off in one big hit as I present to you 'Almigo's guide to picking a red hot winner in the race that stops the nation, the 2015 Melbourne Cup!

Read on horse fanatics!

If you're new to me picking winners something, you're probably unaware that I select an overall champion from a definitive set of rules that I like to fine tune every year until we grind away the selections until one lone champion remains. We kick off our selection criteria....



...now!

RULE 1: (UPDATED) 30 IS THE NEW 40. 



Hello horse, are you currently rated at $30 or more to cross the finish line in first place and get punters drunk for days in a celebration? You are? Then get out of my winners list please. Yes this means you:

SNOW SKY, BIG ORANGE, HARTNELL, HOKKO BRAVE, SKY HUNTER, THE OFFER, GRAND MARSHALL, QUEST FOR MORE, KINGFISHER, PRINCE OF PENZANCE, and SERTORIOUS.

RULE 2: (ORIGINAL) IF YOU STRUGGLE SAYING IT, IT'LL STRUGGLE TO WIN




Taking this rule out on account of the hardest to pronounce horse having Al in their name. So ALMOONQUITH lives to ride on in this race. At this stage..

RULE 2.1: (ORIGINAL) 8 YEARS AND NOT RUNNING SO MUCH AS IT USED TO 




In the history of the cup, an 8 year old horse has won it twice. Out of about 14514 runnings. So off to the old horses home you go: Well that's

HOKKO BRAVE (Already out - rule 1), RED CARDEAUX and SERTORIUS (Already out - rule 1)

RULE 3: (ORIGINAL): BLACK IS NOT BACK




"17 cup winning jockeys have worn black as their main color, the last being George Podmore on Evening Peal in 1956."


Well that's not going to swing here, so we take out EXCESS KNOWLEDGE and FAME GAME

RULE 4: (ORIGINAL) BACK FOR ROUND 2? FORGETABOUT.



In this rule we part company with any horse that tried last year and didn't manage to score the win. Because the stats tell us it's a big struggle to score the cutlery the next time around, so bye bye to:

WHO SHOT THEBARMAN and RED CARDEAUX (Already out rule 2.1)

RULE 5: (ORIGINAL) 18 IS A TRUE BARRIER




Barrier 18 has never produced a winner,.but we've already taken KINGFISHER out due to age.

RULE 6: (NEW RULE) LETS TALK ABOUT SEX BABY!




According to the stats, Entire/Stallion > Geldings > Colts > Mares > Fillies. Since there's no Fillies in this lineup, lets let the Mares go. Which rules out:

GUST OF WIND

This leaves us with a handy little list of:

CRITERION
ALMOONQUITH
THE UNITED STATES
TRIP TO PARIS
OUR IVANHOWE
MAX DYNAMITE
PREFERMENT
BONDI BEACH
SKY HUNTER

Therefore:

RULE 6: (NEW RULE) THREE'S A CROWD




The last time a horse won with a name comprised of three more more words, was 1997. Before that, 1985. So long for now:

THE UNITED STATES and TRIP TO PARIS

RULE 7: A HORSE IS A HORSE OF COURSE OF COURSE




Now I don't know about you, but I've noticed a trend with the last 7 winners. They've all been labelled 'Horse'. (Yes technically they're all horses here but the label is in comparison to Mares, Geldings etc.) Since we're massive trend following bandwagon jumpers here, the following don't make the cut:

MAX DYNAMITE (GELDING) and SKY HUNTER (GELDING)

Which whittles our little list down to:

CRITERION
ALMOONQUITH
OUR IVANHOWE
PREFERMENT
BONDI BEACH

RULE 8: IT'S ALL IN THE NUMBERS.



Since we only want to know the final four, lets take a look at our survivors barrier draw and race number and come up with wild conclusion from there.

-Numbers 4 and 12 have the most Melbourne Cup wins in the history of the race. Which means OUR IVANHOWE survives this round.

-The most successful barriers have been 9-12 with four winners in the last 11 years. (None of our horses are actually in these barriers..)

-Barrier 15 hasn't produced a winner since 1973. So goodbye, so long, farewell my friend: PREFERMENT.

So in conclusion:

Using my incredibly in depth horse selection system, only four mighty fine horsies make the cut and they are: ALMOONQUITH, CRITERION, OUR IVANHOWE and BONDI BEACH. Taking a look at who has the better track record in percentage of wins, the list looks like this:

BONDI BEACH
OUR IVANHOWE
ALMOONQUITH
CRITERION

When we look at the same horse as they perform when making it to the first three places in a race, we end up with:

BONDI BEACH
CRITERION
OUR IVANHOWE
ALMOONQUITH

Which based on my dodgy maths, my final order for the 2015 Melbourne Cup looks like this:

1. BONDI BEACH
2. OUR IVANHOWE
3. CRITERION
4. ALMOONQUITH

Go you good thing and good luck with your punting! (Remember to gamble responsibly and if it's not fun, walk away!)

These guys were stunned by my selections. How about you?

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