How to pick a Melbourne Cup Winner

Behold - today in an incredible display of humanitarianism, I am sharing my guide to picking a Melbourne Cup Winner! With this in depth guide and with the Almigo patented process of elimination, we're going to find a Melbourne Cup Winner!*

They're bowled over with my predictions!

*Results may vary and will probably not include an actual winner. You have been warned.


Okay, lets take a look at whose running this year along with some rough odds:

AMERICAIN (12)5.50
MOUNT ATHOS (8)7.50
DUNADEN (16)7.50
RED CADEAUX (18)11.00
MALUCKYDAY (9)13.00
GREEN MOON (5)16.00
MY QUEST FOR PEACE (1)17.00
ETHIOPIA (14)19.00
GALILEO'S CHOICE (11)19.00
KELLINI (10)20.00
FIORENTE (2)21.00
MOURAYAN (3)21.00
LIGHTS OF HEAVEN (17)26.00
TAC DE BOISTRON (21)34.00
ZABEELIONAIRE (24)34.00
WINCHESTER (22)41.00
JAKKALBERRY (19)51.00
CAVALRYMAN (6)51.00
SANAGAS (4)51.00
GLENCADAM GOLD (7)51.00
NIWOT (15)51.00
PRECEDENCE (20)81.00
VOILA ICI (13)151.00
UNUSUAL SUSPECT (23)301.00

So, who's getting cut from this list?

BUT I'LL MAKE A FORTUNE!

Anything ranked at $50 or more to win will do anything but. So we bid goodbye to JAKKALBERRY, CAVALRYMAN, SANAGAS, GLENCADAM GOLD, NIWOT, PRECEDENCE, VIOLA ICI and UNUSUAL SUSPECT

HOW DO YOU SAY THAT NAME AGAIN?

Apart from Dunaden just scraping under the rule last year, all winning horses in the last ten years have had easy names to pronounce. (Like VIEWED, SHOCKING, BREW...okay maybe not so much MAKYBE DIVA but you could still get that one correct most of the time). Following that trend, we removed all of the horses with names designed to confuse Racecallers and punters combined: RED CARDEAUX, TAC DE BOISTRON, ZABEELIONAIRE, MOURAYAN

He's picked a winner!
CAN A COUNTRY DO IT?

It's been a while since a horse specifically named after a country won the cup. How long? Well RUSSIA scored the win back in 1946. AMERICAIN doesn't count because it's name isn't 'United States of America'. Therefore bye bye ETHIOPIA.

8 YEARS TOO LATE

The last time an 8 year old horse won the Melbourne Cup? 1938. Yeah it's been a while then... This cuts out AMERICAIN and WINCHESTER.

DO BLACK ONES GO FASTER?

Er...no. In Melbourne Cup Trivia: 17 cup-winning jockeys have worn black as their main colour, the last, however, being George Podmore on Evening Peal in 1956. Navy blue and royal blue come second with 14 wins. Which means we can now cross FIORENTE off the list.

Great tips so far Migo!

This of course leaves just 8 picks left in the race that stops a nation. However that's still too many and quite an expensive trifecta, so lets whittle them down some more.

MOUNT ATHOS
DUNADEN
MALUCKYDAY
GREEN MOON
MY QUEST FOR PEACE
GALILEO'S CHOICE
KELLINI
LIGHTS OF HEAVEN

4 words in a name? When was the last time a horse with 4 words in a name won the Melbourne cup? Never apparently so we can eliminate MY QUEST FOR PEACE immediately.

The last time a 3 words in a name horse won? 1997 with MIGHT AND POWER, therefore we can turn LIGHTS OF HEAVEN off.

This leaves a plucky 6 left standing and we move to previous performance to gauge how they're going to fair tomorrow. In its last three races GREEN MOON's best was a 2nd place and a 5th so it's out here as it doesn't have a recent taste of winning. Likewise GALILEO'S CHOICE is not ours as a 7th and a scratching don't get the silverware. MALUCKYDAY is even worse based on these rankings so out it goes too.

Punters not thrilled with GREEN MOON not being selected here
Which of course leaves:

MOUNT ATHOS
DUNADEN
KELLINI

And here it comes down to personal preference. Personally I like horses that sound like exotic super cars which means I'd be favouring KELLINI first, followed by DUNADEN next. Anyone who names a car MOUNT ATHOS is an idiot.

So there you have it folks, Almigo selects Kellini over Dunaden and Mount Athos. Good luck and may the best horses (mine) win!

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